Publications

Refereed Articles

Sci2Pol: Evaluating and Fine-tuning LLMs on Scientific-to-Policy Brief Generation

Weimin Wu, Alexander C. Furnas, Eddie Yang, Gefei Liu, Akhil Pandey Akella, Xuefeng Song, Dashun Wang, and Han Liu

Proceedings of ICLR, 2026

Abstract

We propose Sci2Pol-Bench and Sci2Pol-Corpus, the first benchmark and training dataset for evaluating and fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) on policy brief generation from a scientific paper. We build Sci2Pol-Bench on a five-stage taxonomy to mirror the human writing process: (i) Autocompletion, (ii) Understanding, (iii) Summarization, (iv) Generation, and (v) Verification. It features 18 tasks in multiple-choice and open-ended formats. Specifically, for the Generation stage, we show that BERTScore and ROUGE scores fail to capture the quality of brief writing, and introduce a new LLM-based evaluation metric aligned with expert judgement. Using this benchmark, we evaluate 13 leading open-source and commercial LLMs to uncover key limitations. To improve LLM performance on brief writing, we curate the Sci2Pol-Corpus for fine-tuning. We start by linking each cited scientific paper to its corresponding policy document, drawn from 5.6 million policy records. This produces 140,000 candidate pairs. We then employ an LLM-as-a-judge to filter high-quality examples, followed by in-context polishing using three expert-written samples as references. This process yields a final set of 639 new pairs. Finally, we fine-tune three models on Sci2Pol-Corpus: LLaMA-3.1-8B, Gemma-12B, and Gemma-27B. Fine-tuning leads to consistent performance improvements across Sci2Pol-Bench. Notably, after fine-tuning, Gemma-27B surpasses the much larger GPT-4o and DeepSeek-V3 (671B). These demonstrate the effectiveness of our corpus in bridging the gap between science and policy.

Partisan disparities in the funding of science in the United States

Alexander C. Furnas, Nic Fishman, Leah Rosenstiel, and Dashun Wang

Science 389(6766): 1195–1200, 2025

Covered in Time, The Atlantic, The Economist, Northwestern Now, Kellogg Insight

Abstract

Republican lawmakers consistently provided robust federal funding, often exceeding Democrats.

Partisan disparities in the use of science in policy

Alexander C. Furnas, Timothy M. LaPira, and Dashun Wang

Science 388(6745): 362–367, 2025

Covered in Nature (×2), Kellogg Insight, Splinter News, The Daily Northwestern, IFLScience

Abstract

Documents from Congress and think tanks reflect differences in how science is cited.

Pivots or Partisans? Proposal-Making Strategy and Status Quo Selection in Congress

Jesse Crosson, Geoff Lorenz, and Alexander C. Furnas

Quarterly Journal of Political Science 20(2): 139–181, 2025

Abstract

Lawmakers vary considerably in how effectively they advance their priorities through Congress. However, the actual proposal-writing strategies undergirding these differences have remained largely unexplored, due to measurement and methodological difficulties. These obstacles have included prohibitively small sample sizes, costly data requirements, and strong theoretical assumptions. In this paper, we address these obstacles and analyze the proposal strategies of effective lawmakers directly, using original measures of the spatial locations of congressional bill proposals and associated status quos generated by jointly scaling cosponsorship, roll-call, and interest group position-taking data for 1,007 bills from the 110th through 114th Congresses. Because interest groups take positions on bills before they receive votes, our measures cover many bills that die in committee, permitting comparisons between successful and unsuccessful bills. We demonstrate that legislative advancement favors moderate proposals over partisan ones, and that effective lawmakers are those who make proposals closer to the median even at the expense of their preferred policy.

Conflating Lobbying and PACs: The Surprisingly Low Overlap in Organizational Lobbying and Campaign Expenditures

Alexander C. Furnas, Timothy M. LaPira, and Clare Brock

PS: Political Science & Politics, 1–9, 2025

Abstract

This article investigates whether campaign contributions and lobbying are complementary, substitutive, or distinct forms of organizational political engagement. Our study reveals minimal overlap between organizations that engage in lobbying and those that make campaign contributions despite the perception that these activities are interchangeable forms of "money in politics." Using comprehensive contribution and lobbying report data from 1998 to 2018, we find that most politically active organizations focus exclusively on either lobbying or making campaign contributions. Only a small percentage of organizations engage in both activities. This finding challenges the assumption that these forms of political activity are inherently linked. The majority of organizations engaged in political activity do so exclusively through lobbying. However, the top lobbying groups spend the most money and almost always have affiliated political action committees (PACs). Most lobbying money is spent by a small number of big spenders—organizations that also have affiliated PACs. Organizations that both lobby and make campaign contributions tend to be well resourced and rare.

The people think what I think: False consensus and unelected elite misperception of public opinion

Alexander C. Furnas and Timothy M. LaPira

American Journal of Political Science, 2024

Covered in Psychology Today, Slow Boring, the Financial Times

Abstract

Political elites must know and rely faithfully on the public will to be democratically responsive. Recent work on elite perceptions of public opinion shows that reelection‐motivated politicians systematically misperceive the opinions of their constituents to be more conservative than they are. We extend this work to a larger and broader set of unelected political elites such as lobbyists, civil servants, journalists, and the like, and report alternative empirical findings. These unelected elites hold similarly inaccurate perceptions about public opinion, though not in a single ideological direction. We find this elite population exhibits egocentrism bias, rather than partisan confirmation bias, as their perceptions about others' opinions systematically correspond to their own policy preferences. Thus, we document a remarkably consistent false consensus effect among unelected political elites, which holds across subsamples by party, occupation, professional relevance of party affiliation, and trust in party‐aligned information sources.

Lobbying responsiveness to congressional policy agendas

EJ Fagan and Alexander C. Furnas

Policy Studies Journal 52(1): 11–29, 2024

Abstract

We examine the strategic use of contract and in‐house lobbyists by interest groups in response to shifting policy agendas. The role that lobbyists play in the policy process changes based on the policy agenda. Most of the time, subsystems manage small changes to public policy, rewarding actors with long‐term relationships. Organizations with a deep interest in the issue area maintain permanent lobbying presences, earning some degree of privilege over policymaking. However, when the broader macropolitical agenda lurches toward the issue, new participants become involved. New participants often lack the lobbying expertise of the in‐house lobbyists of established actors. Contract lobbyists play a critical role in providing spare capacity on‐demand, allowing participants not normally involved in subsystems to lobby. They also allow the best‐resourced actors, who may employ a long‐term lobbying presence, to further expand it when necessary. We test this theory using a new dataset of the lobbying content of 1,370,396 bill mentions in U.S. lobbying disclosure reports by 11,842 organizations from 2006 to 2016. We compare their policy agenda to that of the U.S. Congress. We find strong evidence that organizations hire contract lobbyists to respond to brief moments of agenda setting while permanent in‐house lobbyists have a more stable agenda.

The dynamics of issue attention in policy process scholarship

EJ Fagan, Alexander C. Furnas, Chris Koski, Herschel Thomas, Samuel Workman, and Corinne Connor

Policy Studies Journal 52(3): 481–492, 2024

Abstract

This article examines the policy topics and theoretical debates found in Policy Studies Journal (PSJ) articles over the last three decades. PSJ is the premier journal for scholars studying policy processes, seeking to create generalizable theories across the spectrum of specific policy areas. To examine trends in PSJ over time, we collected 1314 abstracts from PSJ articles. We identified abstracts that mention major theories of the policy process and stages of the policy cycle. Next, we measured their policy content using the Comparative Agendas Project codebook, as well as their citations in academic journals and policy documents. We then explore these data, finding that changes in the content of PSJ articles over time correspond with other trends in the policy process field and PSJ's increased impact factor.

More than mere access: An experiment on moneyed interests, information provision, and legislative action in congress

Alexander C. Furnas, Timothy M. LaPira, Alexander Hertel-Fernandez, Lee Drutman, and Kevin Kosar

Political Research Quarterly 76(1): 348–364, 2023

Abstract

Campaign donors and corporate interests have greater access to Congress, and the legislative agenda and policy outcomes reflect their preferences. How this privileged access converts into influence remains unclear because petitioner-legislator interactions are unobserved. In this article, we report the results of an original survey experiment of 436 congressional staffers. The vignette manipulates a petitioner's identity, the substance of the request, and the supporting evidence being offered. We test how likely staff are to take a meeting, to use the information being offered, and to recommend taking a position consistent with the request, as well as whether they perceive the request to be congruent with constituent preferences. Donors and lobbyists are no more likely to be granted access than constituents, but staffers are more likely to use information and to make legislative action recommendations when the information source is an ideologically aligned think tank. Subgroup analysis suggests these effects are particularly strong among ideological extremists and strong partisans. And, information offered by aligned think tanks are thought to be representative of constituent opinion. Our results reveal the partisan and ideological predispositions that motivate legislative action that is more costly than merely granting access.

The Junior Americanist Workshop Series

Christina Ladam, Austin Bussing, Alexander C. Furnas, Josh McCrain, David R. Miller, and Rachel Porter

PS: Political Science & Politics 55(3): 552–553, 2022

Abstract

Like all modern innovations in political science, the Junior Americanist Workshop Series (JAWS) originated from a Twitter thread. When one of our cadre mused about whether zero-cost virtual seminars could fill the void left by the many in-person conferences and workshops canceled or converted to costly remote formats due to the COVID-19 pandemic, we came together to answer the call. The founding vision of JAWS was to provide cost-free opportunities for early-career American politics scholars to present their research and receive feedback from leading scholars in their field. JAWS has evolved and currently provides free networking and professional-development opportunities, which many scholars had lost access to during the pandemic when conferences were curtailed and university buildings were closed. This article discusses how we developed JAWS, the challenges that we faced, and how we envision the workshop continuing as a complement to traditional in-person conferences in the post-pandemic world.

Partisan competition and the decline in legislative capacity among congressional offices

Jesse M. Crosson, Alexander C. Furnas, Timothy M. LaPira, and Casey Burgat

Legislative Studies Quarterly 46(3): 745–789, 2021

🏆 Best Publication on Effective Lawmaking 2022 · Top Cited Article 2020–2022 (Wiley)

Abstract

Since the 1990s, members of the US House have shifted resources away from legislative functions to representational activities. We reveal this decline using an original dataset constructed from 236,000 quarterly payroll disbursements by 1,090 member offices for 120,000 unique staff between the 103rd and 113th Congresses, as well as interviews with former members and staff in Congress. These data allow us to test two plausible alternative explanations, one rooted in the centralization of legislative power over time and the other in conservatives' desires to contract government power. We show that the decline in legislative capacity is symmetrical between and consistent within both parties, contrary to expectations rooted in asymmetrical, ideological sabotage. Additionally, this divestment occurs within incumbent member offices over time, accelerates when new members replace incumbents, and persists when majority control changes. We conclude that competition over institutional control and centralization of legislative functions motivates declining legislative capacity among individual members.

Pandemic Pluralism: Legislator Championing of Organized Interests in Response to COVID-19

Alexander C. Furnas, Jesse M. Crosson, and Geoffrey M. Lorenz

Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy 2(1): 23–41, 2021

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has induced a system-wide economic downturn disrupting virtually every conceivable economic interest. Which interests do legislators publicly champion during such crises? Here, we examine mentions of particular industries across thousands of press releases issued by members of Congress during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic (January to June 2020). We show that members consistently emphasized interests significant to their constituency and party network, but less so their direct campaign contributors or ideological allies. This suggests that members believe that they must be seen as good district representatives and party stewards even when national crises could justifiably induce them to favor any number of interests.

Polarized pluralism: Organizational preferences and biases in the American pressure system

Jesse M. Crosson, Alexander C. Furnas, and Geoffrey M. Lorenz

American Political Science Review 114(4): 1117–1137, 2020

🏆 2019 Best Paper Award, APSA Political Organizations & Parties

Abstract

For decades, critics of pluralism have argued that the American interest group system exhibits a significantly biased distribution of policy preferences. We evaluate this argument by measuring groups' revealed preferences directly, developing a set of ideal point estimates, IGscores, for over 2,600 interest groups and 950 members of Congress on a common scale. We generate the scores by jointly scaling a large dataset of interest groups' positions on congressional bills with roll-call votes on those same bills. Analyses of the scores uncover significant heterogeneity in the interest group system, with little conservative skew and notable inter-party differences in preference correspondence between legislators and ideologically similar groups. Conservative bias and homogeneity reappear, however, when weighting IGscores by groups' PAC contributions and lobbying expenditures. These findings suggest that bias among interest groups depends on the extent to which activities like PAC contributions and lobbying influence policymakers' perceptions about the preferences of organized interests.

Coalitions and coordination in Washington think tanks

Alexander C. Furnas

Applied Network Science 5(1): 1–17, 2020

Abstract

Think tanks have become central players in the political and policy ecosystem of the United States, yet the communication and coordination strategies and connections between them remain relatively unexamined. This paper begins to remedy that by using IRS 990 data to construct and analyze the largest board interlock network among policy planning organizations to date. An analysis of 277 policy research organizations located in Washington D.C. reveals high levels of resource seeking, issue-area coordination and weak evidence of ideological coordination among these substantively important organizations in American politics.

The partisan ties of lobbying firms

Alexander C. Furnas, Michael T. Heaney, and Timothy M. LaPira

Research & Politics 6(3), 2019

🏆 2017 Best Paper Award, APSA Political Organizations & Parties · HM 2018, ECPR Interest Groups

Abstract

This article examines lobbying firms as intermediaries between organized interests and legislators in the United States. It states a partisan theory of legislative subsidy in which lobbying firms are institutions with relatively stable partisan identities. Firms generate greater revenues when their clients believe that firms' partisan ties are valued highly by members of Congress. It hypothesizes that firms that have partisan ties to the majority party receive greater revenues than do firms that do not have such ties, as well as that partisan ties with the House majority party lead to greater financial returns than do partisan ties to the Senate majority party. These hypotheses are tested using data available under the Lobbying Disclosure Act from 2008 to 2016. Panel regression analysis indicates that firms receive financial benefits when they have partisan ties with the majority party in the House but not necessarily with the Senate majority party, while controlling for firm-level covariates. A difference-in-differences analysis establishes that Democratically aligned lobbying firms experienced financial losses when the Republican Party reclaimed the House in 2011, but there were no significant differences between Republican and Democratic firms when the Republicans reclaimed the Senate in 2015.

Strategic aspects of cyberattack, attribution, and blame

Benjamin Edwards, Alexander C. Furnas, Stephanie Forrest, and Robert Axelrod

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114(11): 2825–2830, 2017

Abstract

Attribution of cyberattacks has strategic and technical components. We provide a formal model that incorporates both elements and shows the conditions under which it is rational to tolerate an attack and when it is better to assign blame publicly. The model applies to a wide range of conflicts and provides guidance to policymakers about which parameters must be estimated to make a sound decision about attribution and blame. It also draws some surprising conclusions about the risks of asymmetric technical attribution capabilities.

Book Chapters

The Congressional Capacity Survey: Who Staff Are, How They Got There, What They Do, and Where They Go

Alexander C. Furnas, Lee Drutman, Alexander Hertel-Fernandez, Timothy M. LaPira, and Kevin R. Kosar

In Congress Overwhelmed, University of Chicago Press, 2020

Descriptive Network Analysis: Interest Group Lobbying Dynamics Around Immigration

Alexander C. Furnas and Lee Drutman

In Analytics, Policy, and Governance, Yale University Press, 2017

Procurement Disclosure in the Slovak Republic

Alexander C. Furnas

In Civic Media Project, MIT Press, 2015

Book Project

Taking Sides: Party Competition, Interest Group Strategy, and the Polarization of American Pluralism

Jesse M. Crosson, Alexander C. Furnas, and Geoffrey M. Lorenz

Book manuscript in preparation · Download proposal ↗

About the book

While most interest groups in the United States still describe themselves as non-partisan, they have, in practice, aligned themselves with one of the two major political parties. Taking Sides documents a 50-year growth in interest group partisanship, examines why and when groups have grown more partisan, and explores the consequences for American government and democracy.

Leveraging a massive new dataset of over 200,000 interest group positions on congressional legislation from 1973 to 2021, along with innovative preference scaling and text analysis, the book offers the first examination of how modern party competition influences interest group strategy and lobbying success. We argue that party competition — rooted in the rise of insecure majorities and solidified during the Gingrich Revolution — has ensnared many organized interests into a feedback loop in which partisanship gets groups' priorities onto the legislative agenda, but only when the group contributes to their party's political brand. The result is a new democratic challenge: once drawn into partisan coalitions, interest groups no longer operate as independent advocates for their members' priorities, but become extensions of party networks — eroding the fluid, cross-cutting coalitions that pluralist theories of democracy assume.

Reports

Working Papers

Bipartisan-cited Science

Alexander C. Furnas and Dashun Wang

Under revision at PNAS

Political Elites' Partisan Beliefs About Climate Change

Alexander C. Furnas, Timothy M. LaPira, and Salil Benegal

R&R at Environmental Research Communications

Mapping Policy Opportunities in Science

Basil Mahfouz, Alexander C. Furnas, Maximillian Mason, and Dashun Wang

Privately-Funded Think Tanks and Bias in the U.S. Policy Advisory System

E.J. Fagan and Alexander C. Furnas

Partisan Disparities in the Production of Science

Alexander C. Furnas, Yian Yin, Jian Gao, and Dashun Wang

Science and Polarization of Public Policymaking: Analysis of U.S. Think Tanks' Policy Documents

Taegyoon Kim, Alexander C. Furnas, and Dashun Wang

Biasing Their Bosses: Staff Ideology, Motivated Reasoning, and the Distortion of Information in Congress

Alexander C. Furnas

Congressional Staffer Policy Portfolios

Jesse M. Crosson, Alexander C. Furnas, and Timothy M. LaPira

Elite Ideology, Partisanship & Information: Two experiments on political elites

Alexander C. Furnas and Timothy M. LaPira

Gaining Access Without Buying It: Campaign Contributions, Allies, and Lobbying on Capitol Hill

Richard Hall, Robert Van Houweling, and Alexander C. Furnas

Using Model Legislation to Estimate Ideology Scores for State Legislators

Alexander C. Furnas, Charles Shipan, and Alton B. H. Worthington

Policy Impact and Scientific Tradeoffs of Service on Federal Advisory Committees

Andrew Saab, Alexander C. Furnas, and Dashun Wang

The Policy Agenda of Social Scientific Research

E.J. Fagan, Alexander C. Furnas, Chris Koski, Jiyoon Lee, Herschel F. Thomas, and Samuel Workman